Adjusting Doctor Bob: Are the Doctor's Bets the Right Prescription for Profits?

Doctor Bob is one of the most respected handicappers around and justifiably so. He has a remarkable record of achievement betting against the line. He reports to have a success rate of 56% over the years and has created models that have others have tried to replicate and his bet announcements still move lines.

Bob has great confidence in his ability to beat the line and is remarkably forthcoming with his record. However, that record is achieved betting before his bets move the line. His paid subscribers must bet after the casinos have adjusted the line in an attempt to make the bets unprofitable. They will typically move the lines by a half to 1 point as soon as the line is released. In football, his higher weighted bets will move a full 2 points.

As more and more math whizzes have moved into the betting market, Bob's ability to beat the line also has been reduced as the line becomes tougher to beat and the casinos have factored many of his modeling advantages into the line. The advancement in analysis is definitely reducing his advantage over the betting market.

Over the last nine years, his college football bets have produced the following record [Updated through 2015]:

3 and 4 stars: 175-146 54.5%
2 Stars: 205-191 51.8%
Strong Opinions/1 Star: 335-327 50.6%
Strong Opinions u7 pts: 40-34 .540

Total Record: 755-698 51.2%

His basketball record over the past 12 years on all star bets: 1793-1591 53.0%

The basketball free opinions on his site, which are plays he considers profitable but not sufficient to merit a 2-star bet, have hit at a rate of 52%.

Clearly, Bob's edge still exists but has been reduced from 56% to roughly 53% and below profitability if you include his opinions which are clearly unprofitable with a very large sample size.

Still, he has an edge and it would seem worth paying for. However, if we adjust his record so that pushes are counted as losses which definitely will be the case after the line move, and we also reduce the number of wins by the same amount given that the same number of wins can be expected to be lost with a push, we find his results drop below profitability as follows [Updated through 2015]:

College Football:

3 and 4 Stars: 168-152 52.5%
2 Stars: 200-196 50.5%
Strong Opinions/1 Star: 331-331 50.0%
Strong Opinions u7 pts: 40-34 .540

Total Record: 739-713 50.9%

College Basketball star plays: 1720-1664 50.8%

After adjusting for line moves, Doctor Bob's record is little better than betting exclusively underdogs and double digits underdogs as star plays. This is before taking his subscriber charges into play which are likely to reduce the totals to coin flip or average bettor status.

If we take subscriber charges into account, we can determine roughly what a subscriber would have returned by reviewing past performance as well.

Bob gives an example of investing $10,000 in his bets and placing 1.5% per star with also a slight suggestion toward betting 1% on the Strong Opinions. As a selling point, he states that $10,000 would gave grown to more than $600,000 by following his picks.

Over the last 13 years, Bob has averaged 9.2 stars of profit per season for an average $1,380 profit per year on a $10,000 gambling portfolio betting 1.5% per star. We can subtract an average of 1.4 stars of profit for his average of around 70 strong opinions at a success rate of 51.6% giving us a total of $1,240 in winnings assuming no line move.

Factoring in the line move, we can take the four prior years of performance as a good expectation of what to expect going forward in terms of pushes and assume 2.2 stars of profit lost to line moves per year along with a loss of 2 stars of profits on lost wins due to pushes on our adjusted line. On average we would win 7.8 stars of profit per year and lose 4.5 to line moves for a total of 3.3 stars taking our winning Doctor Bob seasons to a gain of $495 per year on our $10,000. Adding in a $895 subscription fee, we can expect to lose $400 on the average Doctor Bob winning season, even assuming a success rate equal to the last 13 years giving us an annual loss of 4% per season on a season that Doctor Bob can profit 12.5% per year betting his line.

Even if we assume an individual invests $100,000 gambling on Bob’s picks, we can confidently say that the bettor will win $4,950 per season along with the more economical $895 subscription fee gives us an average expected return of 4.1% per year on a season that Doctor Bob can profit 12.5% per year betting at his line.

Keep in mind, this assumes a 9.2 star profit as we have given him the benefit of the doubt of the last 13 years. Over the past eight years, he has averaged just 1.9 stars (3.3 without Strong Opinions) which is what I project he will average going forward if he can retain his level of skill. This would lower the average $100,000 betting portfolio to an average investment return to roughly 2% per year and possibly retaining his 4% return by avoiding the Strong Opinions. Add in the expected losses and pushes and we are at a loss or tiny profit.

The average bettor will likely darn the luck he has in getting losses on good bets and think they can still be profitable with just a little better luck. But any bettor can expect roughly 2 to 3 pushes per 100 bets. By adjusting the line by a half-point to 1 point at release, casinos have nothing to fear from Doctor Bob's bettors over time. This is not likely to affect bettors expectations much as betting is more about hope than reality.

Obviously, it is not Bob’s fault that a bettor cannot bet his line and it is completely fair for him to report his winning record as he does provide successful picks assuming bettors are able to obtain the line he recommends, and he makes every effort to help them do so. Bob remains a good handicapper, however, his success is diminishing and line moves will destroy any chance of winning over the long term. Bettors may still have a few winning seasons betting with Doctor Bob which will keep hope alive. But realistically, a bettor cannot expect to “invest” with him and produce a positive return.

While I still have great respect for Bob and his methods, it is clear that his bets are no longer worth paying for. He can still beat the line by betting his own bets, but a subscriber will lose in the long run if his performance over most of the last decade continues which we can expect it will.


Post Script: Interestingly, Bob has decided to bet more games this season after an offseason of research that led him to believe that he was passing up too many good plays. Therefore, he will basically be playing Strong Opinions as 1-Star bets. Based on his past performance over recent years, this would seem to be the opposite of what is needed to improve performance and it will be interesting to see how this strategy plays out in the coming years.

However, he is moving away from his situational angles and using more of his math-based research which will likely be a good move for his future performance as he is quite good at finding line value based on pure analysis. To date, I find no difference in his selection process other than his moving into betting quite a few totals plays per week which he has avoided in the past. Given his ability to find value with analysis, it seems unlikely that his moving into totals will affect his winning percentage negatively and will likely be a positive although probably not after line moves.

Additional Post Script: The increased number of bets proved ineffective for Bob in 2014-2015 in both football and basketball with 1 Star football bets providing a record of 26-34 and basketball bets 96-89-3 (51.8%).